The world Trade Organisation (WTO) in its report titled “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics–April 2025” published on April 16, warned that the outlook for trade had “deteriorated sharply” because of the US tariff hikes and the “trade policy uncertainty” they have caused. Based on the tariffs currently in place, and including a 90-day pause of “reciprocal tariffs”, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2025 compared to an increase of 2.9 per cent in 2024. This estimated figure for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a “low tariff” baseline scenario,
This decline in merchandise trade is premised on the tariff situation as of April 14. Trade could decline even further to 1.5 per cent in 2025, if the situation deteriorates This will pose risks for export oriented least-developed countries (LDCs). The WTO also says risks to the merchandise trade forecast persist, particularly from the reactivation of the suspended “reciprocal tariffs” by the US, as well as the spread of trade policy uncertainty that could impact non-US trade relationships.
Trump’s sweeping, unprecedented tariffs on countries around the world are threatening to reshape the global economy. The significance of Trump’s protectionism is that the US has clearly conveyed the message that the global trading system it helped create no longer works for the US.বিস্তারিত